By Ivan Zelensky, Union Borotba (Struggle)
I very often read news like this:
The Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) government demands that the Ukrainian government address the issue of local elections in the Donbass.
The DNR government demands the resumption of pensions and social benefits by the Kiev government.
The DNR government demands the execution of the agreement on the removal of heavy weapons.
The DNR government demands that Ukraine abide by the Minsk accords.
But you must understand that the DNR government won’t get a damn thing from it…
Even if we assume that the Kiev authorities and Poroshenko personally were interested in reconciliation — and I see no reason to assume this, since the government-controlled media and officials continue their lies and provocations, escalating hatred and revenge against allies of the Donbass rebels and citizens who are sympathetic to the rebellion – including such nefarious tricks as yesterday’s exhibition “Vatnikov in a Cage,” held under the direct patronage of the Ukrainian Ministry of Culture … Even if we assume that Poroshenko and some part of the government were interested in a speedy reconciliation between Ukraine and the Donbass rebels, they would not be allowed to do so.
Not only won’t the U.S. allow it, as finally became clear after the incident with Kolomoisky, the Ukrainian government is on the hook. First of all, Ukrainians themselves will not allow it. Not all of them, of course — far from the majority. But it is clear that Ukraine has developed a powerful coalition for war – backed by a significant number of ordinary citizens intimidated, deceived and drugged by propaganda.
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| Ivan Zelensky Photo by Greg Butterfield |
Second, a large social group interested in the war is the mid-sized entrepreneurs who are cashing in. After all, war is always very expensive! All those who managed to secure military contracts, producers and speculators in clothing, underwear, shoes, accessories like belts and pouches, canned food, soap, tents, vegetables, construction materials, groceries, auto parts, coffins, of course, and even mattresses and furniture! — they all have a vested interest in the war continuing. Many of them, even a year ago, couldn’t have dreamed of becoming dollar millionaires, and they have contributed greatly to the inflation ravaging Ukrainian workers. These people have a vested interest in continuing the carnage. At least for as long as the Kiev government continues to pay them, and banks continue to provide loans for military contracts.
So: this whole “pro-military coalition” simply will not allow the government and the president to begin a peaceful settlement, even if they suddenly wanted peace. And government officials are well aware that as soon as they begin to take some real steps towards reconciliation, this coalition will immediately overthrow them and hang them from the lampposts in Mariinsky Park as “traitors.”
I believe, therefore, that there will be no peace. And there will be no compliance with the Minsk accords. And the war will continue.
I don’t know whether the leaders of the DNR and Lugansk People’s Republic (LC) understand this. I think they do understand perfectly, and make demands on Kiev only for the sake of formality. Or maybe not.
By the way, the accords should be discussed independently. Let’s start with the fact that in themselves they are useless scraps of paper, because officials of the “Kiev junta” have not signed any shared documents with Plotnitsky or Zakharchenko. In particular, they have not signed the “package of measures” which Pushilin appeals to. The Ukrainian side acted in this matter as true rogues: For its part, this document was signed only by [former Ukraine President] Kuchma, whose signature official Kiev dismissed the day after the conclusion of the negotiations.
But even if we assume that these documents are recognized by Kiev, they are written so that they can be read in many different ways, as was demonstrated immediately by the negotiators, at the first press conference after the talks. For example, the item on “disarmament of all illegal groups” they interpret as disarmament of the Novorossiyan Armed Forces rather than Right Sector and other questionable “battalions”; the item on “ensuring the release and exchange of hostages and illegally detained persons” they interpret as changing nothing since all whom they captured were “arrested by legal process”; let alone what they have in mind for constitutional reform and decentralization – which it seems they themselves cannot say.
However, on this point, the governments of the People’s Republics erred in not presenting their own draft constitution for a new Ukraine in the negotiations, since it was this format that was on the agenda rather than a two-state format — Ukraine and Novorossiya. Presentation of a draft constitution to the Kiev side — written on the basis of, for example, the constitution of Germany — would have immediately killed two birds with one stone. Any discrepancies could have been removed, and Donbass would acquire the image of the constructive side.
However, the content of the documents signed in Minsk, and even more so, parsing errors and all sorts of “shoulds,” are a separate conversation.
Returning to the original topic, I repeat: the DNR will not get a damn thing from its demands to the Kiev government. And it will get only the continuation of the war.
And defeat of the Donbass rebels in the war will only be overcome when the leadership of the People’s Republics stops its fairy tale of “Novorossiyan Confederation,” the prospect of which often frightens even those Ukrainian citizens who live in this very Novorossiya and generally oppose to the “Kiev junta.” It’s frightening because of the analogy with the “Transnistrian option,” whose ills are obvious to many. Not to mention the “Crimean option,” the impossibility of which is now obvious to all, except only the most foolish Russian nationalists.
No, if the governments of the People’s Republics intend to lead their troops to victory — and they have no other choice! — they have only one way forward: to proclaim themselves the new Ukraine! Propose a new project, free from the Nazis and Ukrainian oligarchs, a Federal Republic based on the equality of citizens under the law, and — in keeping with our Donbass traditions — mutual respect and equality of people who engage in honest labor. This is the only strategy that can save insurgent Donbass, historic Novorossiya, and all of Ukraine. Only this can reverse the ascension of Ukrainian oligarchs, and only this can attract the working masses of other Ukrainian regions to the side of the great Donbass uprising.
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